An Effective Predictive Maintenance Approach based on Historical Maintenance Data using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment: PHM14 Data Challenge

Abstract

This paper presents an effective health assessment and predictive maintenance technique for industrial assets. The technique and algorithms applied to data sets provided by the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2014 Data Challenge. The data contains usage and part consumption for three years. In short, the usage data contains a parameter that roughly measures asset usage, and the part consumption data includes information regarding part replacement and maintenance actions. The first two years of data are considered as "Training" data and the third year is considered as "Testing" data. The proposed method built on the probability of the failure risk during training dataset. The main objective is to develop a model based on first two years data set (training) and determine the high risk and low risk times of failure for each individual asset for the third year.
Training data shows many maintenance activities with 14 different codes. The principle difficulty is to detect the Preventive Maintenance (PM) in the training data. The paper presents the method in three main steps: the first step is to recognize the PM pattern based on time and type of maintenance activity via the training data. The second step is to determine the high-risk time intervals based on PM times by checking the frequency of the failures at specific times between each PM. The third step is to predict the high risk time intervals in the testing data using the information acquired from the training data. The score predicted by this probabilistic risk assessment method won the first place in the PHM Data Challenge Competition.