A Dynamic Weighted RBF-Based Ensemble for Prediction of Time Series Data from Nuclear Components

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Published Nov 3, 2020
Jie Liu Valeria Vitelli Enrico Zio Redouane Seraoui

Abstract

In this paper, an ensemble approach is proposed for prediction of time series data based on a Support Vector Regression (SVR) algorithm with RBF loss function. We propose a strategy to build diverse sub-models of the ensemble based on the Feature Vector Selection (FVS) method of Baudat & Anouar (2003), which decreases the computational burden and keeps the generalization performance of the model. A simple but effective strategy is used to calculate the weights of each data point for different sub-models built with RBF-SVR. A real case study on a nuclear power production component is presented. Comparisons with results given by the best single SVR model and a fixed-weights ensemble prove the robustness and accuracy of the proposed ensemble approach.

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Keywords

Ensemble, feature vector selection, dynamic weights calculation

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Technical Papers