Cost-benefit Analysis of Prognostics and Condition-based Maintenance Concepts for Commercial Aircraft Considering Prognostic Errors
This paper provides a lifecycle cost-benefit analysis of the use of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) systems in future or present commercial aircraft. The approach considers individual aircraft component’s failure behavior, prognostic performance levels including prognostic errors, and condition-based maintenance (CBM) concepts. The proposed methodology is based on a discrete-event simulation for aircraft operation and maintenance and uses an optimization algorithm for the planning and scheduling of condition-based maintenance (CBM) tasks. In the study, a 150-seat short-/medium-range aircraft equipped with PHM and subject to a CBM program is analyzed. The simulation results are evaluated from an operational and economic perspective. The analysis results can support the derivation of technical and economic requirements for prognostic systems and CBM planning concepts.
How to Cite
CBM, cost-benefit analysis, Condition Based Maintenance, aircraft, discrete-event simulation, prognostic errors
Banks, J., Reichard, K., Crow, E., & Nickell, K. (2005). How engineers can conduct cost-benefit analysis for PHM systems. Proceedings of IEEE Aerospace Conference, March 5-12, Big Sky, MT. doi: 10.1109/AERO.2005.1559701
Bohlin, M. (2010). A Study of Combinatorial Optimization Problems in Industrial Computer Systems, Doctoral dissertation, Mälardalen University, Sweden. www.es.mdh.se/pdf_publications/1622.pdf
Brealey, R., Myers, S., & Franklin, A. (2006). Corporate Finance, 8th edition, New York: McGraw-Hill Irwin.
Engel, S. J., Gilmartin, B. J., Bongort, K., & Hess, A. (2000). Prognostics, the real issues involved with predicting life remaining. Proceedings of IEEE Aerospace Conference, March 18-25, Big Sky, MT. doi: 10.1109/AERO.2000.877920
Eurocontrol (2007). A Matter of Time: Air Traffic Delay in Europe. Eurocontrol Trends in Air Traffic, vol. 2.
Feldman, K., Jazouli, T., & Sandborn, P. A. (2009). A Methodology for Determining the Return on Investment Associated With Prognostics and Health Management. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, vol. 58, no. 2, pp. 305-316.
Hölzel, N. B., Schilling, T., Neuheuser, T., & Gollnick, V. (2012). System Analysis of Prognostics and Health Management Systems for Future Transport Aircraft. Proceedings of the 28th Congress of the International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences (ICAS), September 23-28, Brisbane, Australia.
Hölzel, N. B., Schilling, T., & Gollnick, V. (2014). An Aircraft Lifecycle Approach for the Cost-Benefit Analysis of Prognostics and Condition-based Maintenance based on Discrete-Event Simulation. Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2014, September 29 - October 02, Fort Worth, Texas. ISBN 978-1-936263-17-2. ISSN 2325-0178.
James, I, Lumbard, D, Willis, I and Goble, J. (2003). Investigating No Fault Found in the Aerospace Industry. 2003 Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium.
Khan, K. A., Houston, G. D. (1999). Design Optimization using Life Cycle Cost Analysis for Low Operating Costs. RTO AVT Specialists' Meeting on Design for Low Cost Operation and Support, Ottawa, Canada.
Langhans, S., Linke, F., Nolte, P., & Schnieder, H. (2010). System analysis for future long-range operation concepts. 27th Congress of the International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences (ICAS), September 19-24,Nice, France.
Leao, B. P., Fitzgibbon, K. T., Puttini, L. C., & Melo, G. P.B. de (2008). Cost-benefit analysis methodology for PHM applied to legacy commercial aircraft. Proceedings of IEEE Aerospace Conference, March 1- 8, Big Sky, MT. doi: 10.1109/AERO.2008.4526599
Sandborn, P. A., & Wilkinson, C. (2007). A maintenance planning and business case development model for the application of prognostics and health management (PHM) to electronic systems. Microelectronics Reliability, vol. 47, no. 12, pp. 1889-1901.
Saxena, A., Roychoudhury, I., Celaya, J. R., Saha, S., Saha, B. & Goebel K. (2010). Requirement Specifications for Prognostics: An Overview. AIAA Infotech@Aerospace 2010, April 20-22, Atlanta, GA.
Scanff, E., Feldman, K. L., Ghelam, S., Sandborn, P., Glade, M. & Foucher, B. (2007). Life cycle cost impact using prognostic health management (PHM) for helicopter avionics, Microelectronics Reliability, vol. 47, pp. 1857-1864.
Söderholm, P. (2007). A system view of the No Fault Found (NFF) phenomenon. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, vol. 92, pp. 1-14.
Schröder, C. (2011). Erstellung eines Algorithmus für die Optimierung der Flugzeuginstandhaltungsplanung. Diploma thesis, Institute of Air Transportation Systems, Hamburg University of Technology, Hamburg, Germany.
Wicke, K., Kruse, M. & Linke, F. (2012). Mission and economic analysis of aircraft with natural laminar flow, 28th Congress of the International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences (ICAS), September 23-28, Brisbane, Australia.
The Prognostic and Health Management Society advocates open-access to scientific data and uses a Creative Commons license for publishing and distributing any papers. A Creative Commons license does not relinquish the author’s copyright; rather it allows them to share some of their rights with any member of the public under certain conditions whilst enjoying full legal protection. By submitting an article to the International Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society, the authors agree to be bound by the associated terms and conditions including the following:
As the author, you retain the copyright to your Work. By submitting your Work, you are granting anybody the right to copy, distribute and transmit your Work and to adapt your Work with proper attribution under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States license. You assign rights to the Prognostics and Health Management Society to publish and disseminate your Work through electronic and print media if it is accepted for publication. A license note citing the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License as shown below needs to be placed in the footnote on the first page of the article.
First Author et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.