Timed failure propagation graph (TFPG) is a causal model that captures the causal and temporal aspects of failure propagation in a wide variety of engineering systems. In this paper we investigate the problem of failure prognosis within the TFPG model settings. The paper introduces a formal definition for system reliability based on measures of failure criticality, proximity between alarm observations, and plausibility of the estimated current system condition. An algorithm to compute the time to reach a given criticality level of the system, referred to as time to criticality, based on the current conditions of the system is introduced. The time to criticality, also known as the system’s Remaining Useful Life (RUL), can be used as a measure for system reliability at any given time in the future.
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model based prognostics, model-based methods, prognostics, remaining useful life (RUL)
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