A Bayesian approach to reliability prediction for one-shot devices



Chinuk Lee Byeongmin Mun Junseop Lee Zaeill Kim Byungtae Ryu Sukjoo Bae


Projectile such as rocket and missiles is one of most important object for military and space industry. In order to measure its reliability accurately, general method which uses binomial distribution often require more than 3,000 sample to evaluate the reliability which can be problematic for further research and development. There have been many researches and studies to predict reliability with small sample size. Many studies suggest Bayesian approach with precise prior distribution as effective method to measure reliability of one shot device. In this research, we suggest application of proportional hazard model with Bayesian approach to estimate reliability of one shot device with
small sample size.

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