State of Health and Lifetime Prediction of Lithium-ion Batteries Using Self-learning Incremental Models

Abstract

Lithium-ion batteries are key energy storage elements in the context of environmental-aware energy systems representing a crucial technology to achieve the goal of zero carbon emission. Therefore, its conditions must be monitored to guarantee the safe and reliable operation of the systems that use these components. Furthermore, lithium-ion batteries’ prognostics and health management policies must cope with the nonlinear and time-varying nature of the complex electrochemical dynamics of battery degradation. This paper proposes an incremental-learning-based algorithm to estimate the State of Health (SoH) and the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of lithium-ion batteries based on measurement data streams. For this purpose, a two-layer framework is proposed based on incremental modeling of the SoH. In the first layer, a set of representative features are extracted from voltage and current data of partial charging and discharging cycles; these features are then used to train the proposed model in a recursive procedure to estimate the battery’s SoH. The second layer uses the capacity data for incremental learning of an Autoregressive (AR) model for the SoH, which will be used to propagate the battery’s degradation through time to make the RUL prediction. The proposed method was applied to two datasets for experimental evaluation, one from CALCE and another from NASA. The proposed framework was able to estimate the SoH of 8 different lithium-ion cells with an average percentage error below 1.5% for all scenarios, while the lifetime model predicted the cell’s RUL with a maximum average error of 25%.