Dynamic Weighted PSVR-Based Ensembles for Prognostics of Nuclear Components



Jie Liu Valeria Vitelli Redouane Seraoui Enrico Zio


Combining different physical and / or statistical predictive algorithms for Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) components into an ensemble can improve the robustness and accuracy of the prediction. In this paper, an ensemble approach is proposed for prediction of time series data based on a modified Probabilistic Support Vector Regression (PSVR) algorithm. We propose a modified Radial Basis Function (RBF) as kernel function to tackle time series data and two strategies to build diverse sub-models of the ensemble. A simple but effective strategy is used to combine the results from sub-models built with PSVR, giving the ensemble prediction results. A real case study on a power production component is presented.

How to Cite

Liu, J., Vitelli, V., Seraoui, R., & Zio, E. (2014). Dynamic Weighted PSVR-Based Ensembles for Prognostics of Nuclear Components. PHM Society European Conference, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.36001/phme.2014.v2i1.1477
Abstract 24 | PDF Downloads 17



ensemble methods, Data-driven prognostics, dymanic weighting, support vector regression

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