A reliability-based prognostics framework for railway track management

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.sidebar##

Juan Chiach´ıo Manuel Chiach´ıo Darren Prescott John Andrews

Abstract

Railway track geometry deterioration due to traffic loading is a complex problem with important implications in cost and safety. Without appropriate maintenance, track deterioration can lead to severe speed restrictions or disruptions, and in extreme cases, to train derailment. This paper proposes a physics-based reliability-based prognostics framework as a paradigm shift to approach the problem of railway track management. As key contribution, a geo-mechanical elastoplastic model for cyclic ballast settlement is adopted and embedded into a particle filtering algorithm for sequential state estimation and RUL prediction. The suitability of the proposed methodology is investigated and discussed through a case study using published data taken from a laboratory simulation of train loading and tamping on ballast carried out at the University of Nottingham (UK).

How to Cite

Chiach´ıo, J., Chiach´ıo, M., Prescott, D., & Andrews, J. (2017). A reliability-based prognostics framework for railway track management. Annual Conference of the PHM Society, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.36001/phmconf.2017.v9i1.2455
Abstract 4 | PDF Downloads 5

##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##

Keywords

Railway Track geometry, Model-based Prognostics, Particle Filtering

References
Alva-Hurtado, J., & Selig, E. (1981). Permanent strain behavior of railroad ballast. In Proceedings of the international conference on soil mechanics and foundation engineering, 10th. (Vol. 1).
Andrews, J. (2012). A modelling approach to railway track asset management. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part F: Journal of Rail and Rapid Transit, 0954409712452235.
Andrews, J., Prescott, D., & De Rozi`eres, F. (2014). A stochastic model for railway track asset management. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 130, 76–84.
Arulampalam, M. S., Maskell, S., Gordon, N., & Clapp, T. (2002). A tutorial on particle filters for online nonlinear/non-gaussian bayesian tracking. Signal Processing, IEEE Transactions on, 50(2), 174–188.
Aursudkij, B., McDowell, G. R., & Collop, A. C. (2009). Cyclic loading of railway ballast under triaxial conditions and in a railway test facility. Granular Matter, 11(6), 391–401.
Bai, L., Liu, R., Sun, Q.,Wang, F., & Xu, P. (2015). Markovbased model for the prediction of railway track irregularities. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part F: Journal of Rail and Rapid Transit, 229(2), 150-159.
Beck, J. (2010). Bayesian system identification based on probability logic. Structural Control and Health Monitoring, 17(7), 825–847.
Bing, A. J., & Gross, A. (1983). Development of railroad track degradation models. Transportation Research Record(939).
Brown, S. F., Brodrick, B. V., Thom, N. H., & McDowell, G. R. (2007). The nottingham railway test facility, uk. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Transport, 160(2), 59-65.
Chiach´ıo, J., Chiach´ıo, M., Sankararaman, S., Saxena, A., & Goebel, K. (2015). Condition-based prediction of time-dependent reliability in composites. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 142, 134–147.
Chiach´ıo, J., Chiach´ıo, M., Saxena, A., Sankararaman, S., Rus, G., & Goebel, K. (2015). Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation for fatigue damage progression models in composites. International Journal of Fatigue, 70, 361–373.
Chiach´ıo, M., Chiach´ıo, J., Shankararaman, S.,&Andrews, J. (2017). A new algorithm for prognostics using Subset Simulation. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, in press.
Chrismer, S., & Selig, E. (1993). Computer model for ballast maintenance planning. In Proceedings of 5th international heavy haul railway conference, beijing, china (pp. 223–227).
Dahlberg, T. (2001). Some railroad settlement modelsa critical review. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part F: Journal of Rail and Rapid Transit, 215(4), 289–300.
EC. (2011). White Paper: Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area. The European Commission. Available from https://goo.gl/mJi907
Ford, R. (1995). Differential ballast settlement, and consequent undulations in track, caused by vehicle-track interaction. Vehicle System Dynamics, 24(sup1), 222–233.
Gordon, N., Salmond, D., & Smith, A. (1993). Novel approach to nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian state estimation. IEEE-Proceedings-F, 140, 107–113.
Hamid, A., & Gross, A. (1981). Track-quality indices and track-degradation models for maintenance-of-way planning (No. 802).
Hecke, A. (1998). Effects of future mixed traffic on track deterioration (Tech. Rep.). Stockholm: Royal Institute of Technology. (Report TRITA-FKT 1998:30)
Hettler, A. (1984). Bleibende setzungen des schotteroberbaues. Eisenbahntechnische Rundschau, 33(11).
Indraratna, B., Salim, W., Christie, D., et al. (2002). Performance of recycled ballast stabilised with geosynthetics. CORE 2002: Cost Efficient Railways through Engineering, 113.
Indraratna, B., Thakur, P. K., Vinod, J. S., & Salim, W. (2012). Semiempirical cyclic densification model for ballast incorporating particle breakage. International Journal of Geomechanics, 12(3), 260–271.
Iyengar, R., & Jaiswal, O. (1995). Random field modeling of railway track irregularities. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 121(4), 303–308.
Jaynes, E. (1957a). Information theory and statistical mechanics. The Physical Review, 106(4), 620–630.
Jaynes, E. (1957b). Information theory and statistical mechanics. II. The Physical Review, 108(2), 171–190.
Jaynes, E. (2003). Probability theory: the logic of science. Ed. Bretthorst, Cambridge University Press.
Lim, W. L., & McDowell, G. R. (2005). Discrete element modelling of railway ballast. Granular Matter, 7(1), 19-29.
Meier-Hirmer, C., Riboulet, G., Sourget, F., & Roussignol, M. (2009). Maintenance optimization for a system with a gamma deterioration process and intervention delay: application to track maintenance. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 223(3), 189–198.
Mishra, M., Odelius, J., Thaduri, A., Nissen, A., & Rantatalo, M. (2017). Particle filter-based prognostic approach for railway track geometry. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 96, 226 - 238.
Mroz, Z., Norris, V., & Zienkiewicz, O. (1978). An anisotropic hardening model for soils and its application to cyclic loading. International Journal for
Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics, 2(3), 203–221.
Mundrey, J. (2009). Railway Track Engineering. Tata McGraw-Hill Education.
Pender, M. (1978). A model for the behaviour of overconsolidated soil. Geotechnique, 28(1), 1–25.
Prescott, D., & Andrews, J. (2013). A track ballast maintenance and inspection model for a rail network. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of risk and reliability, 227(3), 251–266.
Prescott, D., & Andrews, J. (2015). Investigating railway track asset management using a markov analysis. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part F: Journal of Rail and Rapid Transit, 229(4), 402–416.
Quiroga, L. M., & Schnieder, E. (2012). Monte carlo simulation of railway track geometry deterioration and restoration. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 226(3), 274–282.
Roscoe, K. H., Schofield, A., & Wroth, C. (1958). On the yielding of soils. Geotechnique, 8(1), 22–53.
Salim, M. W. (2004). Deformation and degradation aspects of ballast and constitutive modelling under cyclic loading. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Faculty of Engineering, University of Wollongong.
Sato, Y. (1995). Japanese studies on deterioration of ballasted track. Vehicle system dynamics, 24(sup1), 197–208.
Selig, E. T., & Waters, J. M. (1994). Track geotechnology and substructure management. Thomas Telford.
Shafahi, Y., & Hakhamaneshi, R. (2009). Application of a maintenance management model for iranian railways based on the markov chain and probabilistic dynamic programming. International Journal of Science and Technology. Transaction A: Civil Engineering, 16(1), 87–97.
Shenton, M. (1984). Ballast deformation and track deterioration. Track technology, 253–265.
Shi, X. (2009). Prediction of permanent deformation in railway track. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, School of Civil Engineering, the University of Nottingham, UK.
Soleimanmeigouni, I., Ahmadi, A., & Kumar, U. (2016). Track geometry degradation and maintenance modelling: A review. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part F: Journal of Rail and Rapid Transit, 0954409716657849.
Suiker, A. S., & Borst, R. de. (2003). A numerical model for the cyclic deterioration of railway tracks. International journal for numerical methods in engineering, 57(4), 441–470.
Suiker, A. S., Selig, E. T., & Frenkel, R. (2005). Static and cyclic triaxial testing of ballast and subballast. Journal of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering, 131(6), 771–782.
Tanizaki, H., & Mariano, R. S. (1998). Nonlinear and nongaussian state-space modeling with monte carlo simulations. Journal of Econometrics, 83(1), 263–290.
Vale, C., & Lurdes, S. M. (2013). Stochastic model for the geometrical rail track degradation process in the portuguese railway northern line. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 116, 91–98.
Section
Technical Papers