Forecasting Spacecraft Telemetry Using Modified Physical Predictions



Ryan Mackey Igor Kulikov


Among systems that provide sensor data of their performance, one approach to prognostic estimation is forecasting, i.e. prediction of measurable parameters and comparison of predicted values against established operational limits. Forecasting can be attempted statistically, or can be based on rigorous physical simulation. However, combining these approaches is difficult where system mode behavior or timing of system activities is uncertain, limiting the accuracy or applicability of a forecast.

In this paper we describe a method to modify simulation outputs to better match current telemetry. We begin with a familiar autoregressive approach to model residuals between predicted spacecraft performance, provided by physics-based modeling tools, and up-to-date spacecraft telemetry. This result is then improved by transforming the simulation result to better fit recent data, and the transformation is applied to generate more accurate future predictions. The method is suitable for real-time signal prediction. We will motivate this approach and characterize its performance using example telemetry from the NASA Mars Exploration Rover spacecraft.

How to Cite

Mackey, R., & Kulikov, I. . (2010). Forecasting Spacecraft Telemetry Using Modified Physical Predictions. Annual Conference of the PHM Society, 2(1).
Abstract 28 | PDF Downloads 26



forecasting, prognostics, sensor fusion, physical modeling

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