Bayesian Approach for the Lethargy Coefficient Estimation in the Probabilistic Creep-Fatigue Life Model
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.sidebar##
Abstract
The researches of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) have been important in the field of engineering. The crack is propagated by high temperature and stress in power plants, vehicle engines and etc. The defect and damage are also accumulated. Therefore, it is necessary for design of creep-fatigue life about various structures and etc. In this study, probabilistic life design based on Zhurkov life model was performed using the lethargy coefficient under the variety of temperatures and stress conditions. For this work, the integration life equation was derived using Zhurkov life model. The deterministic lethargy coefficient is calculated to using the reference of the Small Punch (SP)-Creep test and tensile-shear test data about steel material (rupture stress and rupture time). Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling method based on Bayesian framework is employed for estimating the lethargy coefficient and considering its uncertainties. As a result, predicted creep-fatigue life was observed that it was considerably decreased in accordance with increasing temperature and stress conditions relatively. This life model is reasonable through comparing with conventional creep-fatigue life data.
How to Cite
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##
Prognostics and Health Management (PHM), Creep-fatigue life, Lethargy coefficient, Zhurkov model, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Bayesian framework
X. Guan, R. Jha, & Y. Liu (2010). Trans-dimensional MCMC for fatigue prognosis model determination updating and averaging. Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society. October 10-16, Portland, Oregon.
J.-H. Choi, D. An, J. Gang, J. Joo & N. H. Kim (2011). Bayesian Approach for Parameter Estimation in the Structural Analysis and Prognosis. Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society. September 25-29 Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
X. Guan, Y. Liu, R. Jha, A. Saxena, J. Celaya, & K. Geobel (2011). Comparison of Two Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Assessment Approaches Using Prognostic Performance Metrics. International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management, vol.2, pp.1-11.
S. Sankararaman, Y. Ling, C. Shantz & S, Mahadevan (2011). Uncertainty Quantification in Fatigue Crack Growth Prognosis. International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management, vol.2, pp. 1-15.
F. Ibisoglu & M. Modarres (2015). Probabilistic Life Models for Steel Structures Subject to Creep-Fatigue Damege. International Journal of Prognostics and Health Managements, vol. 6, pp. 1-12.
S. N. Zhurkov, (1965). Kinetic Concept of The Strength of Solid. International Journal of Fracture Mechanics, vol.1, no. 4, pp. 311-322
S. M. Yang, H. Y. Kang, J. H. Song, S. J. Kwon, H. S. Kim, (1997). Failure life prediction by simple tensile test under dynamic load. International Conference on Fracture 9. November Sydney, Australia.
J. E. Park, S. M. Yang, J. H. Han & H. S. Yu (2011). Creep-Fatigue Design with Various Stress and Temperature Conditions on the Basis of Lethargy Coefficient. Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers, vol.3, pp. 157-162.
S. R. Sin, S. M. Yang, H. S. Yu, C. W. Kim & H. Y. Kang (2007). Fatigue Analysis of Multi-Lap Spot Welding of High Strength Steel by Quasi Static Tensile-Shear Test. Engineering Material, vol. 345-346, pp. 251-254. INSTRON 8516, Instron Corporation, Norwood, MA.
KS B 0850, (2011). Korean Standards Information Center, Korean Industrial Standard, Seoul. Republic Of Korea.
J. M. Park, J. H. Song, H. Y. Kang, S. M. Yang (1998). Prediction of life of SAPH45 steel with measured fracture time and strength. Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers, pp. 269~273
J. H. Song, H. G. Noh, H. S. Yu, H. Y. Kang, & S. M. Yang (2004). Estimation of fatigue Life by lethargy coefficient using molecular dynamic simulation. International journal of automotive technology, vol.5(3), pp.215-219
S. H. Leem, D. An, S. Ko, & J.-H. Choi (2011). A Study on the parameter estimation for crack growth prediction under variable amplitude loading. Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society. September 25-29 Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
The Prognostic and Health Management Society advocates open-access to scientific data and uses a Creative Commons license for publishing and distributing any papers. A Creative Commons license does not relinquish the author’s copyright; rather it allows them to share some of their rights with any member of the public under certain conditions whilst enjoying full legal protection. By submitting an article to the International Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society, the authors agree to be bound by the associated terms and conditions including the following:
As the author, you retain the copyright to your Work. By submitting your Work, you are granting anybody the right to copy, distribute and transmit your Work and to adapt your Work with proper attribution under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States license. You assign rights to the Prognostics and Health Management Society to publish and disseminate your Work through electronic and print media if it is accepted for publication. A license note citing the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License as shown below needs to be placed in the footnote on the first page of the article.
First Author et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.