Data-Driven Lead-Acid Battery Prognostics Using Random Survival Forests
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.sidebar##
Abstract
Problems with starter batteries in heavy-duty trucks can cause costly unplanned stops along the road. Frequent battery changes can increase availability but is expensive and sometimes not necessary since battery degradation is highly dependent on the particular vehicle usage and ambient conditions. The main contribution of this work is a case-study where prognostic information on remaining useful life of lead-acid batteries in individual Scania heavy-duty trucks is computed. A data- driven approach using random survival forests is proposed where the prognostic algorithm has access to fleet management data including 291 variables from 33603 vehicles from 5 different European markets. The data is a mix of numerical values such as temperatures and pressures, together with histograms and categorical data such as battery mount point. Implementation aspects are discussed such as how to include histogram data and how to reduce the computational complexity by reducing the number of variables. Finally, battery lifetime predictions are computed and evaluated on recorded data from Scania’s fleet-management system.
How to Cite
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.details##
prognostics, Data Driven, battery, random survival forests, heavy-duty trucks
Breiman, L. (2001). Random forests. Machine learning, 45(1),5–32.
Breiman, L., Friedman, J., Stone, C. J., & Olshen, R. A. (1984).Classification and regression trees. CRC press.
Cox, D. R., & Oakes, D. (1984). Analysis of survival data (Vol. 21). CRC Press.
Harrell, F. E., Califf, R. M., Pryor, D. B., Lee, K. L., & Rosati, R. A. (1982). Evaluating the yield of medical tests.
Jama, 247(18), 2543–2546.Ishwaran, H., & Kogalur, U. (2013). Random forests for survival, regression and classification (rf-src) [Computer software manual]. manual. Retrieved from http://cran.r-project.org/ web/packages/randomForestSRC/ (R pack- age version 1.4)
Ishwaran, H., & Kogalur, U. B. (2010). Consistency of random survival forests. Statistics & probability letters, 80(13), 1056–1064.
Ishwaran, H., Kogalur, U. B., Blackstone, E. H., & Lauer, M. S. (2008). Random survival forests. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 841–860.
Ishwaran, H., et al. (2007). Variable importance in binary regression trees and forests. Electronic Journal of Statis- tics, 1, 519–537.
Linxia, L., & Köttig, F. (2014, March). Review of hybrid prognostics approaches for remaining useful life prediction of engineered systems, and an application to battery life prediction. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 63(1), 191–207.
R Core Team. (2014). R: A language and environment for statistical computing [Computer software manual]. Vienna, Austria. Retrieved from http://www.R-project .org/
Wager, S., Hastie, T., & Efron, B. (2014). Confidence intervals for random forests: The jackknife and the infinitesimal jackknife. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 15, 1625-1651.
The Prognostic and Health Management Society advocates open-access to scientific data and uses a Creative Commons license for publishing and distributing any papers. A Creative Commons license does not relinquish the author’s copyright; rather it allows them to share some of their rights with any member of the public under certain conditions whilst enjoying full legal protection. By submitting an article to the International Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society, the authors agree to be bound by the associated terms and conditions including the following:
As the author, you retain the copyright to your Work. By submitting your Work, you are granting anybody the right to copy, distribute and transmit your Work and to adapt your Work with proper attribution under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States license. You assign rights to the Prognostics and Health Management Society to publish and disseminate your Work through electronic and print media if it is accepted for publication. A license note citing the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License as shown below needs to be placed in the footnote on the first page of the article.
First Author et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.