Complex System Prognostics : a New Systemic Approach

Abstract

Profitability and rentability are two key features for industrial companies that exploit complex engineered systems. One way to improve these features is the maintenance. Indeed, companies need to keep and improve equipments availability while reducing the maintenance costs. The maintenance optimization is now more than ever an industrial concern. The goal is to avoid failure and to have the right equipment with the right person at the right moment, at the right place. In the Prognostics and Health Management cycle, a prognostic function is used to predict the future system damage states in order to improve the maintenance plan. This paper addresses the prognostic domain by presenting a generic framework for prognostic. This framework allows to make a prediction of the system damage state by taking into account how and where the system will be used. The framework is described by a specific formalism and methodology to analyze the system damage dynamic of elementary resources and to trace the subsystem and system damage state according to the system structure. The framework is based on the system decomposition according to three levels: Environment, Mission, Process. This paper introduces the maintenance plan and a systemic view in the framework.