Combining Deep Learning and Survival Analysis for Asset Health Management
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Abstract
We propose a method to integrate feature extraction and prediction as a single optimization task by stacking a three-layer model as a deep learning structure. The first layer of the deep structure is a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model which deals with the sequential input data from a group of assets. The output of the LSTM model is followed by meanpooling, and the result is fed to the second layer. The second layer is a neural network layer, which further learns the feature representation. The output of the second layer is connected to a survival model as the third layer for predicting asset health condition. The parameters of the three-layer model are optimized together via stochastic gradient decent. The proposed method was tested on a small dataset collected from a fleet of mining haul trucks. The model resulted in the “individualized” failure probability representation for assessing the health condition of each individual asset, which well separates the in-service and failed trucks. The proposed method was also tested on a large open source hard drive dataset, and it showed promising result.
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deep learning, long short term memory, survival analysis, prognostics and health management
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