Uncertainty in PHM

Abstract

Uncertainty plays an important role in diagnostics, prognostics, and health management of engineering systems. The presence of uncertainty leads to an imprecise understanding of the behavior of such systems; as a result, this may adversely affect the results of diagnostics and prognostics. In particular, this may lead to an inaccurate estimation of the remaining useful life, which in turn affects operational decision-making. While several researchers have recognized the importance of uncertainty in prognostics and health management (PHM), there has not been a significant amount of research work that addresses the impact of uncertainty in different PHM activities. This is challenging because there are various sources of uncertainty that affect PHM, their interactions are not fully understood, and therefore, it is an arduous task to perform different PHM activities by systematically accounting for these sources of uncertainty. However, when this can be accomplished, it would be possible to estimate the uncertainty and confidence in the results of diagnostics and prognostics, and quantify the risk involved in prognostics-based decisionmaking.